North Texas Economists Question When Will There be a Recession


The North Texas economy is always moving but the unemployment rate in Dallas has been low for over a year now. How long can the economy continue down this path?

Dallas News tells us how Steve Cochrane creates a metro area business cycle index in a timeline. The index uses the following factors:

  • Employment
  • Industrial Production
  • House Prices
  • Homebuilding Activity

Dallas, Austin and Houston are shown on the index to be in a late expansion for the past two years. Fort Worth has been in mid expansion for the past three years. The index for these North Texas counties is a result of unemployment being as low as it could be and the economy losing room to grow.

Normally Dallas-Fort Worth has plenty of room for growth but without the labor, resources and ability to build more homes the housing market is down. For now business spending continues but inflation is expected to rise bringing short-term interest rates up too.

Although North Texas is surprisingly in late expansion, there shouldn’t be any worry of a recession until the Southeast and Midwest move from mid to late expansion. According to the article we shouldn’t expect that until 2020.

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