Where can you Spot a Recession Coming in the Commercial Real Estate Industry?


The commercial real estate industry has been constantly growing for some time now but demographic, technology and job growth are good indicators on whether or not to expect a recession.

Dallas Business Journal outlines Ken McCarthy’s commercial outlook he spoke about at the National Association of Real Estate Editors conference. McCarthy goes on to explain that millennial’s lead the way for commercial growth. “If companies want to hire this young generation, they’ve got to be in that live, work, play environment”

Technology is also a key factor. The highest amount of tech jobs can be found in New York and Washington DC. Tech companies follow talent. If there are strong tech players in New York then that’s where the tech industry will continue to grow.

McCarthy goes on to explain that Dallas is very diverse and tech growth could be hidden by everything else going on. The commercial real estate industry will do better in a place like Dallas versus San Francisco only because San Francisco focuses mainly on tech and if tech industry were to fall their whole economy would suffer whereas Dallas has more other factors.

Job growth is another indicator on whether or not to expect a recession. Although there has been constant job growth for over the past eight years, the “skills mismatch” is a little bit of an issue. There are plenty of job openings but are there unemployed people that have the skills to have those jobs?

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